The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. He is now facing a primary from Congressman Jody Hice, whom Trump has endorsed, in his 2022 re-election bid. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". They determine whether we live in a free or repres The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. police- settlements. Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. As Congress considers legislation that would decriminalize marijuana and end the sentencing disparity for crack and cocaine offenses, Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight contributor Lester Black about what Americans think should be done about drugs and how politicians are responding. Galen speaks with Atlanta Journal Constitution reporters Tia Mitchell and Greg Bluestein about how the Georgia senate runoff is looking in the final stretch. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Smialek argues that over the past century, through successive crises, the Fed has accumulated the power to choose winners and losers . The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? The crew asks why Queen Elizabeth II's passing has received such intense global press coverage. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Democratic representative from California Adam Schiff discusses why he thinks American democracy is in trouble, which he lays out in his new book "Midnight In Washington: How We Almost Lost Our Democracy And Still Could.". A message from Martine. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . . By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums . The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. The data behind that evolution is striking. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. MANAGER'S SALARY. Local news is disappearing across the country. They also previewed and caught up on some elections, including Alaskas special election to replace longtime Alaska congressman Don Young that took place this past weekend. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Tyler's intense research leads to stimulating and surprising . They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. The crew talks about the appeal of celebrity candidates and what it tells us about our politics. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Cardozo Law Professor Kate Shaw discusses that evidence and its legal ramifications. Serial's new true-crime podcast, The Coldest Case in Laramie, revisits a 1985 murder. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts 01:00 PM. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines robert kraft granddaughter. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. Happy holidays! It was the biggest shift of any demographic group between the two presidential elections and led to some speculation about a possible realignment. Rev. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. By May 21, 2021 0 . As of this writing, we still dont know which party will control the House or Senate, and we may not know come the morning. 02:13:21 - Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD Co-HostsAdam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85 Rachel Parker @RaichetP Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO https://heartlandp Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners questions about politics, polling and more. Galen Druke discusses that question with pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and writers Ramesh Ponnuru and Henry Olsen, who have all spent their careers in Republican politics and conservative thought. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. FiveThirtyEight Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. The FBI released nationwide crime numbers from 2020 this week that will likely contribute to the already tense political debate over crime and policing. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. The Supreme Court Not So Much. The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. Find us at ThisDayPod.com. ( Businessweek) Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. They also consider how Rep. George Santoss scandals will affect his tenure in Congress and whether he would have been elected at all if his fabricated biography had received more scrutiny during the campaign. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. FiveThirtyEight Politics 3 days ago Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. Saturday, February 25, 2023. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. What does it take to make democracy work? We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. Then the crew explains why they consider four competitive U.S. House districts to be bellwether elections for which party will win control of the House. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. . 04:58 PM. The crew discusses the role partisanship has played in Americans' assessment of risk and their behavior during the pandemic. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. FiveThirtyEight Politics on Apple Podcasts 200 episodes FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News News 4.5 19.2K Ratings FEB 21, 2023 What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection It's a busy week! Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. Whereas Tester . david senak now. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. So, the usual. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. . Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. Dive in and Share your insights! 266, the . Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. The full series is available now on Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/2QQw8e9), Spotify (https://spoti.fi/3ukYgoq), or wherever you listen by searching "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson." The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The Negro League Stars That MLB Kept Out And Is Finally Recognizing. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation.